The Population Collapse of Colombia
Colombia could die before 2045.
Births in Colombia, 2015–2024
| Year |
Births |
Δ vs Prior Year |
| 2015 |
652,119 |
— |
| 2016 |
647,441 |
−0.7 % |
| 2017 |
651,223 |
+0.6 % |
| 2018 |
649,043 |
−0.3 % |
| 2019 |
648,112 |
−0.1 % |
| 2020 |
629,334 |
−2.9 % |
| 2021 |
601,227 |
−4.5 % |
| 2022 |
573,580 |
−4.6 % |
| 2023 |
513,411 |
−10.5 % |
| 2024 |
417,551 |
−18.7 % |
The sharp acceleration in the decline—especially −10.5 % in 2023 and −18.7 % in 2024—coincides with abortion legalization in 2023 and other fertility-reducing trends.
Key assumptions for the projection
- Starting population (2024): 51 million
- Birth rate falls by 10 % per year (a smoothed approximation of the 2020–2024 trend)
- Deaths fixed at 300,000 per year (≈ 5.8 ‰ crude death rate)
- Net emigration in 2024: 450,000 people/year, growing +6 % annually
No allowance is made for immigration, drastic policy shifts, or large-scale health crises.
Projected population trend (2024–2045)
| Year |
Births |
Emigration |
Net Δ |
Population (M) |
| 2024 |
417,551 |
450,000 |
−332,449 |
51.0 |
| 2030 |
209,000 |
638,000 |
−729,000¹ |
47.6 |
| 2035 |
131,000 |
854,000 |
−1,023,000 |
42.4 |
| 2040 |
82,000 |
1,145,000 |
−1,363,000 |
36.2 |
| 2045 |
52,000 |
1,536,000 |
−1,784,000 |
28.3 |
¹ In 2030, projected emigration of ≈ 638,000 minus 300,000 deaths and 209,000 births yields a net loss of ≈ 729,000.
Critical stresses by decade
2030s (2030–2039)
- Shortage of young labor: Companies start to face talent gaps in tech, construction, and healthcare; automation accelerates.
- Shrinking education system: Schools and universities close or merge due to falling enrollments; teaching staff are cut.
- Pension and healthcare pressure: The contributor-to-pensioner ratio falls below 3:1, forcing higher contributions or benefit cuts.
- Declining tax revenues: A shrinking tax base widens the public deficit, limiting investment in infrastructure and social programs.
- Internal migration surge: Rural exodus to major cities overwhelms urban services (transport, housing) and deepens regional imbalances.
- Social unrest: Protests over youth unemployment and service cuts; potential rise in insecurity and organized crime.
2040s (2040–2049)
- Population ~30–35 million: A 30–40 % drop since 2024; many small towns become nearly deserted.
- High dependency ratio: Over 45 % of the population is either under 15 or over 65; extreme strain on social security.
- Cuts to essential services: Water, electricity, and public transport rationed to balance shrinking budgets.
- Infrastructure deterioration: Roads, bridges, and hospitals age without maintenance; competitiveness and public health suffer.
- Extreme urban concentration: Only a few regions (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali) hold over 70 % of the population, creating overload and territorial inequality.
- Risk of institutional collapse: Bankrupt local governments, authority vacuums, and political fragmentation; possible federal intervention or even partial militarization of services.
- Rise of informal economies and “failed cities”: Entire neighborhoods or municipalities operate outside state control, with private justice and services, worsening social fragmentation.
Conclusion:
Without drastic measures (pro-natal policies, return-migration incentives, fiscal reform), Colombia could experience functional collapse of major state institutions by the mid-2040s, with local humanitarian crises and intense political strains.
Uncertainty factors
- Demographic policies: Family subsidies, free childcare, or tax breaks could moderate the decline.
- Global economy: Higher commodity prices or foreign investment could slow emigration.
- Public health: Medical advances or new health crises (e.g., pandemics) could alter mortality and migration.
- Reproductive technology and culture: Social attitudes toward family size, adoption, or IVF could dramatically shift fertility.
- Security and governance: Rising violence or regional conflicts would accelerate exodus and pressure on the state.
This simple model makes clear that, absent strong intervention, the demographic pressures from falling births and steady emigration could push Colombia toward a critical inflection point between 2035 and 2045, with partial collapse of services before mid-century.